A comprehensive new poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center (The Bay State Poll) highlights strong voter support for key incumbent Democrats ahead of the November elections. U.S. Senator Ed Markey and Governor Maura Healey both maintain comfortable leads over their respective challengers, while state residents strongly oppose a proposed ballot question seeking to roll back recreational cannabis laws.
Political Races: Incumbents Maintain Comfortable Advantages
U.S. Senate Race
Incumbent Democrat Ed Markey holds a commanding 23-percentage-point lead over Republican nominee John Deaton in the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race.
- Voter Breakdown: 53% of likely voters support Markey, while 30% back Deaton, 9% support Joe Tache (Party for Socialism and Liberation), and 8% remain undecided.
- Favorability: Markey boasts a net favorability rating of $+15$ (53% favorable vs. 38% unfavorable). In contrast, Deaton sits at -1 net favorability, with nearly half of voters (46%) still unfamiliar with him.
Gubernatorial Race
Governor Maura Healey is leading her bid for re-election against Republican challenger Michael Minogue.
- Voter Breakdown:In the general election for governor of Massachusetts, 54% of likely voters say they would vote for Democratic incumbent Maura Healey if the election were held today, 38% would vote for Republican nominee Michael Minogue, 1% would vote for another candidate, and 7% are undecided.
- Shifting Momentum: Support for Minogue has increased by eight percentage points since August, while support for Healey has remained unchanged.
- Candidate Favorability: Both candidates share similar levels of personal popularity:
- Maura Healey: 40% of likely general election voters have a favorable opinion, 41% have an unfavorable opinion, 19% are neutral, and less than 1% don’t know enough to say, yielding a net favorability rating of -1.
- Michael Minogue: 37% have a favorable opinion, 39% have an unfavorable opinion, 6% are neutral, and 19% don’t know enough to say, yielding a net favorability rating of -2.
- Job Performance & Approval: Healey’s net job approval rating has rebounded to +5, with 52% of Massachusetts residents approving of her performance as governor (and 47% disapproving)—making her one of the most popular chief executives in New England alongside New Hampshire Governor Ayotte and Connecticut Governor Lamont.
Key 2026 Ballot Questions: Marijuana Ban Rejected, Support for Conservation
Massachusetts voters face several consequential decisions on upcoming ballot questions, with clear trends emerging across the commonwealth:
- Question 8 (Cannabis Prohibition): Bay Staters soundly oppose Question 8, which aims to repeal laws permitting recreational marijuana sales and home cultivation. A decisive 71% plan to vote “no.”
- Question 6 (Nature for All Fund): A strong majority (69%) intend to vote “yes” on creating a dedicated state conservation fund.
- Question 7 (Zoning Reform): Roughly 59% support requiring municipalities to allow single-family homes on residentially zoned lots of at least 5,000 square feet.
- Question 4 (Same-Day Voter Registration): Also drawing 59% support, voters appear ready to approve same-day registration provisions.
- Question 3 (Primary Reform): Voters are closely divided on eliminating traditional party primaries for a single open primary system (41% yes, 39% no, 19% undecided).
- Question 9 (Firearm Laws): A plurality (38%) support upholding the 2024 firearm modernization legislation (H. 4885), though 35% remain undecided.
National and Regional Issues: Trade Friction and Public Interest Cases
Beyond local candidates and ballot initiatives, the survey captured sharp opinions on broader economic and high-profile legal matters:
- U.S.-Canada Trade Strife: Amid a breakdown in trade negotiations resulting in reciprocal tariffs, 78% of Bay Staters disapprove of President Trump’s handling of trade with Canada. Furthermore, 76% express concern over how ongoing trade disputes will negatively impact the New England regional economy.
- The Lindsay Clancy Case: Highlighting intense public awareness (85% of residents have followed the trial closely), opinions remain split. Among those familiar with the case, 40% believe Lindsay Clancy was guilty, 36% view her as not guilty, and 24% are undecided. On the question of a retrial following a mistrial declaration, 43% believe prosecutors should pursue one, while 33% disagree.
Methodology
- Conducted by: University of New Hampshire Survey Center (The Bay State Poll)
- Dates: September 17–21, 2026
- Sample Size: 590 total completed surveys (including 564 likely general election voters)
- Margin of Error: +/- 4.0 percentage points for the full sample; +/- 4.1 percentage points for likely voters.
